Can the 2008 Housing Act Stabilize and Turn the Real Estate Cycle Around?

Who would have only 5 years ago expected that we would be staring down such complex and turbulent times in real estate?

Last week, President George Bush signed The American Housing Rescue and Foreclosure Prevention Act of 2008 (the Housing Act) into law. It is the most sweeping housing legislation since the Great Depression. The new Act authorizes the Department of the Treasury to stem the tide of home foreclosures and provide a lifeline to mortgage lenders. With inventory in many large cities sitting at almost a one year level, and foreclosures expected to surpass 6 million by 2012, they have a huge task ahead.

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When the economy did poorly, real estate introduced wealth.

When 911 all but destroyed our faith, real estate restored the American Dream.

In many occasions, and in many years, real estate has been the rock to depend, or in some cases even the rocket to ride to riches. But times have changed and the bright years of 2000-2005 have become a dull memory.

It’s not really that real estate itself crashed and burned, but that with new construction out of control, speculation spiraling and lending becoming irresponsible, the burden real estate had to carry became to heavy and the first nail in the coffin ground what was a good thing, to a halt.

Collapsing financial institutions led to immense write offs, allegations and actions of improper conduct led to finger pointing and investigations that in turn led to layoffs and disaster.

With unemployment steadily rising and home prices in a constant month by month decline, the real estate market is brittle and cautiously teetering on which way to go.

With the unprecedented rally of crude oil tethering at $150, and now two government-sponsored entities, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac possibly requiring government bailout. The pair guarantee around $5 trillion worth of mortgages – that’s almost half of the $9.5 trillion debt of the United States. I think we have just witnessed the second nail being hammered into the heart of real estate. Not good at all.

Let’s pray and hope that we don’t have a third nail – a major terrorist attack on local soil in the foreseeable future. Barring the above, the road to real estate recovery is going to be a slow and bumpy one. Most likely it may only pick up momentum during or after 2010 – especially for areas such as Florida, California and Las Vegas.

So for those of us that earn our daily bread from real estate my message is a simple one: Batten down the hatches, expand your horizons, re-engineer your company, automate your business, market more online – yes, maximize every opportunity. Survive the years 2006-2010 and come out the other side with an automated, more efficient, new paradigm, consumer focused real estate model and you may very well find yourself in the front row to become the Amazon, EBay or Google of real estate.

This post is also posted in Inman Community under the title: Three Gold Stars and Two Rusty Nails.

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The stock price rocketed after its initial public offering price of $85 dollars in August of 2004 to over $720 in November 2007. At that time only Exxon Mobil Corp., General Electric Co., Microsoft Corp. and AT&T Inc. had a higher market capitalization among U.S. companies. Today at around $470, nearly 40% from its high, Google still commands a market capitalization of over $110 billion and continues to battle with giants such as News Corp. and Microsoft. 

Google, with its network composed of hundreds of thousands of servers, Google’s system never ages. When its individual pieces die, engineers just pluck them out and replace them with new, faster boxes. This means the “Google cloud” regenerates as it grows, almost like a living organism. 

At the same time Google at some accounts has become the gatekeeper of all information. Google also advises us that “real estate” is the most searched category on the Web – with the 2000-05 housing boom and the subsequent sub-prime and foreclosure catastrophe, this is maybe not that all surprising. But let’s look beyond that for a second.  

With some 141 million individually identified pieces of property in the U.S., real estate is at the very center of the American way of life – whether living, working, sport or entertainment. As Google conducts more real estate searches it aggregates more real estate information. Potentially with each new property search, each new listing added to its “deep search” database, each virtual street tour completed, each foreclosure filed, and so on Google gains more knowledge of the real estate industry. 

It actually is becoming increasingly harder to wrap your mind around just what exactly Google is – and more importantly what it may become.   

Could Google become the best advertising vehicle of all time to find and to market a house for sale?  

And if it does, could that reduce the need for various traditional real estate brokerage services?  

And if yes, to what extent and in what way, could Google influence the fundamental re-engineering of one of the oldest sales professions? 

What are your thoughts?

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