Syndicated from e-Partner

For centuries the notion of turning lead into gold has captured the imagination of countless Alchemists, all of whom were doomed to failure.

The real estate industry’s economic model has been for decades akin to conjuring concoctions that claim to convert the weight of our tarnished enterprise models into shining bars of profitability.

We have not always understood the true alchemy of our industry and the relationship between the decline of profitability with the introduction and application of new technologies to our industry.

Each of the two great historical shifts (economic eras) in our industry have occurred with the rise of new technology, the independence of agents and the empowerment of the consumer. Consider the following diagram and then listen to the accompanying presentation.

The shift from the Broker-Centric era to the Agent-Centric era was created largely as a result of the introduction of a technology known as the Personal Computer (PC) to the daily work habits of agents, empowering them to globalize their reach. From that point on, Broker-Owners were not able to fully contain the spillage of property information into the streets of their marketplace.

Download a FREE copy or the First Economic Wave, the Second Economic Wave and the Third Economic Wave.

The loss of the MLS Book coupled with PC access to MLS data created a decline in the control of property information (always a key contributor to loss of profit) and the empowerment of the consumer who no longer had to enter a real estate office in order to see the Holy Grail.

Nor have we fully appreciated how technology has always defined each of the three economic eras of our history and most importantly how each increase in technology within the industry reduces profitability.

In 1994, along came the Information Super Highway and property data began to find its way to the Internet, where a hungry consumer was waiting. The Internet created a bridge from MLS sources to consumers who were also empowered with PCs. This was the beginning of a shift from the agent-centric model to the current new real estate economy where the consumer is now the central character.

“Pb” (lead) can become “Au” (gold). The alchemetrics (not sure that is a word but I’ll run with it) are simply undeniable. Technology creates the shift and transition from one real estate economic era to the next. With each transition three things always occur:

1. Technology always defines the shift, the model and the wealth in our economic models
2. Owner profitability declines as control over property information control diminishes
3. Information control is distributed over time to an increasing number of people thus, democratizing real estate

What does all of this mean? Simply, and yet rather profoundly, this means that ours is a history made up of transitions created primarily by the introduction of new technologies and a fundamental shift in economic control from us to consumers. It also means that the principle of alchemy is real.

Our lead-based model (forget lead-based paint for a moment!) is in the process of being turned into gold. However, in the alchemic (not sure that is a word either but I’ll run with it as well) process, we will not necessarily become the benefactors of the creation of new wealth being created by the introduction of new consumer-centric technologies. We could be but we are not, it appears, equipped to transition with the consumer into The New Real Estate Economy.

Watch the presentation and please, comment.

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Syndicated from e-Partner

Owners are engaged in the delicate balancing act; walking on the razor’s edge, barefoot.

Slicing into Profit

The razor upon which owners must balance themselves is now slicing so deeply into revenues that profitability is now proving more and more illusive. Today’s Broker/Owners are confronted with an economy that is not rebounding fast enough to enable them to survive.

e-Partner has long held that Broker/Owners are the financial backbone of the real estate industry and that their survival should be one of the top priorities of our industry through 2010.

Our Bleeding Feet

The razor’s edge takes no prisoners and yields no concessions to owners who are struggling to meet their ever increasing general operating expenses. Trapped by the same economic factors faced by other businesses, owners are looking for ways to decrease fixed and personally guaranteed obligations.

e-Partner talks to owners from every brand and those who are independent and the story is generally the same. There are simply too few closing and too much bricks-and-mortar operating expenses. “There is just not enough transaction commission to meet the monthly demands we have,” one broker/owner told us.

Mandatory Agility

Agility, created and sustained, is the first of the Ten Commandments of the New Real Estate Economy.

Although we are not quick on our feet, the razor’s edge is sensitizing us to perils of standing still for too long in one place. Our bloated organization body weight presses down on the sharp stainless steel edge and this slices away large chunks of capital required to sustain retail models.

New principle: the razor’s edge is now an owner’s continuing reality and he/she/all of us will learn to walk on this edge nimbly and quickly or, we will be cut to pieces.

Dancing to a New Beat

Dance or be cut! The stakes have never been higher. But can owners find revenue, create revenue, jettison unnecessary expenses and learn the new beat fast enough to escape the razor’s edge?

Short answer is yes. The long answer is that we can only only escape the razor’s edge if there is the will to accept the truth that some of the old operating fundamentals are no longer adequate and may never be.

Many brokers are holding on, digging in, hunkering down, waiting for the much discussed and heralded market turn-around.

Standing still on a razor’s edge is not recommended. What we do recommend are these immediate actions:

1. Redirecting bricks-and-mortar costs to new market penetration models that can reposition your brand, create recruiting opportunities and new transaction revenue. Shift from facility management and uni-market branding to horizontal branding and multi-market management. ASK US HOW.

2. Include fee-based cash flow models as a part of your total market revenue model. This includes remodeling for up to 65% of you agent team being fee-based agents…AND…including pay for placement models where local supporting services such as insurance companies, new homes contractors and property management companies become total market revenue partners with your firm via flat fee online ad positions. ASK US HOW.

3. Acquire and merge with smaller companies that can open markets to your brand in minor and intermediate markets and create these acquisitions with a “work from home” model, such as e-Partner advocates. This M&A approach allows an owner to expand his/her company without the corresponding capital demands associated with traditional business models. ASK US HOW.

4. Develop and implement consumer-centric social networking models and make them a part of the core personality of your company. Pursuing transparent Internet models that bring the consumer into a partnership with your online presence. There are reasons for the success of Twitter, Facebook, MySpace and YouTube. Consumers want to be empowered to express themselves and create online presence through dialogue. ASK US HOW.

Should the current economic trend continue for 2-3 years it is predictable that many organizations will be forced to close their doors. However, Broker/Owners are still in a position to re-define their business models by cutting and redirecting expenses into affordable growth models.

Our websites will not save us. Our brands will not save us and technology alone is not the solution.

However, understanding the economic eras of the real estate industry and how technology dictates and defines Broker/Owner profitability can help Broker/Owners see the relationship between their models and current trends. Please watch this presentation and post your comments.

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To be “REALonomical” actually means something. REALonomical enterprises recognize the facts surrounding their business models and how those facts play out in real world situations, producing predictable and sustainable ROI. REALonomical is a brokerage mind set and it has something to do with how we model the financial aspects of a company in light of the Third Economic Wave; The Consumer-Centric Era.

It was Once a Simple World

During the First and Second Economic Waves of the real estate industry the model math was fairly simple and easy to interpret. From this interpretation we developed strange economic terms we called “desk cost” and “per person productivity” (ppp). Such economic models delivered notions of profitability because we could run formulas for operating our “offices” and hypothetically project our margins. Our simple formulas appeared as:

Gross Commission Income (GCI) – Cost of Sale (COS) = Gross Company Dollar (GCD). From the GCD, expenses were paid and profit, if any, was realized.

It was a simple world then. Broker/Owners understood how to create profit. Physical space was a huge part of the formula and for many years “cyber” was something we read about in Batman comic books.

Too much of the real estate industry is still living in the former model while being confronted with the transformative power of the cyber model.

This is Now, Not Then

Today’s Broker/Owner faces declining GCI on a per transaction basis, increased COS, less GCD and much higher fixed operating cost. In addition, Broker/Owners generally speaking, have more competition, higher demand for technology solutions, rapidly changing markets and of course, the consumer and his/her/their insatiable appetite for online information, especially property information.

All of this demands a REALonomical mind set on the part of Broker/Owners. It’s an economic mentality that makes and breaks a contemporary brokerage firm. Becoming REALonomical involves:

1. having the correct playing pieces on the board, i.e., understanding what the real estate market is today, not yesterday;
2. having the contemporary tools to create direct relationships with consumers;
3. pointing the business execution strategy in the right direction;
4. setting the business into motion every day so that it produces daily net, net ROI profit

That’s right; the REALonomical mentality focuses the business on daily profitability. REALonomical isn’t meant to be just a clever word; it’s a business mentality that is a lot like the game of tennis; good players always win one point at a time. It’s the single point focus that makes all the difference. It’s essentially the mental toughness required to stay focused on the economics of the brokerage…EVERY DAY!

In tomorrow’s brokerage madness, the winners are going to be those who become REALonomical today; those who win one day at a time, one set at a time and one match at a time. We aren’t playing games, we are playing points.

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3. The Second Economic Wave

Good change agents have an edge to them, typically a sharp edge. Exceptional change agents have a sharp, well informed and analytical edge to them that will cut ones mind open so that it soaks in the message of transformational change. Jeff is a sharp, well informed, analytical agent of change. He is on the march against predatory lending and other kinds of mortgage lending practices that have contributed to a large degree to the current financial state of the union.

ENTER “RATESPEED“

Jeff wants transparency in all things related to mortgage. When we spoke recently, we briefly discussed our respective efforts within the industry but digressed almost immediately to his “RateSpeed” widget for the mortgage industry.

As is usually the case within our industry, disclosure is at the core of RateSpeed. The RateSpeed widget spews out mortgage pricing analysis and its resultant solutions are the kind of transparency that sets the consumer at ease with a sense of “complete” knowledge about the financial ramifications of a mortgage commitment.

Although the RE industry and its biological twin, the mortgage wing, need a dose of RateSpeed widgetry, what we need more than widgets, good as they are, is a dose of the mentality and leadership behind the widgets. Jeff’s widget stems from a mental image of what the mortgage industry’s business model should look like, what it can deliver to the customers in this, our Third Economic Wave, the Consumer-Centric Era.

To REALonomics, RateSpeed is not a widget…the widget is the expression of a kind of business model…of course, that’s what REALonomics thinks about day and night…MODELS.

Behind Jeff Corbett’s RateSpeed widget is a business blueprint and behind the blueprint is a design that delivers a solution to the industry and the consumer. BRAVO!

ENTER “RATESPEED RESISTANCE“

REALonomics admittedly knows less about the fundamental practices of the mortgage industry than it does those of the real estate brokerage industry. But there is an initial and fundamental response to our mutual calls for transformation and transparency…resistance.

Moving from corporate hierarchy models to cooperative and collaborative platforms that embrace complete disclosure will always be met with initial skeptical cynicism and resistance. Nevertheless, the Jeff Corbett’s of this industry are to be recognized for thrusting their widgets into our faces, forcing us to think about transforming a now very sick industry into a new, vibrant and fully fluid, consumer-centric delivery model that our clients love…yes, “LOVE” is what I said.

REALonomics applauds Jeff and all of the rest of the Jeff-like transformers who are inching us forward in our “Qwest for Model Perfect.”

Try RateSpeed. Visit The XBroker.

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When the economy did poorly, real estate introduced wealth.

When 911 all but destroyed our faith, real estate restored the American Dream.

In many occasions, and in many years, real estate has been the rock to depend, or in some cases even the rocket to ride to riches. But times have changed and the bright years of 2000-2005 have become a dull memory.

It’s not really that real estate itself crashed and burned, but that with new construction out of control, speculation spiraling and lending becoming irresponsible, the burden real estate had to carry became to heavy and the first nail in the coffin ground what was a good thing, to a halt.

Collapsing financial institutions led to immense write offs, allegations and actions of improper conduct led to finger pointing and investigations that in turn led to layoffs and disaster.

With unemployment steadily rising and home prices in a constant month by month decline, the real estate market is brittle and cautiously teetering on which way to go.

With the unprecedented rally of crude oil tethering at $150, and now two government-sponsored entities, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac possibly requiring government bailout. The pair guarantee around $5 trillion worth of mortgages – that’s almost half of the $9.5 trillion debt of the United States. I think we have just witnessed the second nail being hammered into the heart of real estate. Not good at all.

Let’s pray and hope that we don’t have a third nail – a major terrorist attack on local soil in the foreseeable future. Barring the above, the road to real estate recovery is going to be a slow and bumpy one. Most likely it may only pick up momentum during or after 2010 – especially for areas such as Florida, California and Las Vegas.

So for those of us that earn our daily bread from real estate my message is a simple one: Batten down the hatches, expand your horizons, re-engineer your company, automate your business, market more online – yes, maximize every opportunity. Survive the years 2006-2010 and come out the other side with an automated, more efficient, new paradigm, consumer focused real estate model and you may very well find yourself in the front row to become the Amazon, EBay or Google of real estate.

This post is also posted in Inman Community under the title: Three Gold Stars and Two Rusty Nails.

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Here is the official scripted response by NAR from Vicki Cox Golder, 2008 NAR First Vice President & Laurie Janik, NAR General Counsel. NAR President Dick Gaylord is also featured here.

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We have been inside, outside and throughout the industry for quite some time. Our vantage point has changed, enabling us to see what we heretofore could not. In the world of business development and economic analysis one’s vantage point can bring the kind of insight that frankly, changes one’s faulty fundamental assumptions while confirming sound precept.

REALonomics now realizes, without further equivocation, analysis or debate, that our industry’s real estate genie has been released from its bottle and is fresh out of wishes!

Pushing the Vapor Back into the Leaky Bottle

From here on out, all attempts to capture the vapor, return it to its confines and cork the RE bottle will fail.

The Genie that once belonged to us, obeyed us, served us and made us what we once were is loose and fresh out of wishes.

The bottle is tarnished. Rubbing the bottle produces nothing. Our Genie is loose and now serving multiple masters simultaneously, none of whom, save one, the consumer, has sway over the Genie’s capacity to grant new wishes.

It’s impossible to bottle this kind of vapor; its seepage passes through the tiniest of spaces, spilling into the open atmosphere, moving where it wills to go. Where does the Genie go? It ALWAYS takes the path of least resistance, shunning confines, rejecting control and moving to open expanse where it finds its ultimate economic freedom.

Bottling the vapor no longer creates reliable “RE Economic Tonic” for the industry. The vapor is meant to be breathed, not bottled.

RGB, NGB and NGCs

Retail Generation Brokerage (RGB) used the bottle to control the Genie in vertical markets where the consumer was required to submit to the model in order to invest in real estate. Net Generation Brokerage (NGB) is the post 2000 freedom model where horizontal peer collaboration is replacing hierarchal control models.

The real estate industry is now the most vulnerable mainline industry to peer-to-peer models where the consumer and the Genie meet up for property inventory data exchanges and local community collaboration. The context is different and the conversation is different. Both the Genie (property and community information) and the consumer have reached agreement…FREEDOM Rules, open space ROCKS!

Vertical (retail, local style bricks and mortar) real estate brokerage models are being quickly replaced with a viral model, spread by a Genie on the loose and fresh out of wishes.

Two dangers to the industry and its economic models occur in this environment. First, there is the danger of complacency, of not re-tooling our economic ship so that it can operate fluidly in a viral, horizontal world where profitability is defined by open, collaborative peer models facilitated by the real estate industry.

Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, there are now signs of the emergence of what REALonomics calls “self brokering” whereby and wherein the consumer creates their own economic reality, ignores real estate professionals, only calling on them if they must and when they so desire for services they define for themselves.

The next generation of “consumer-buyers-sellers-clients” that will fuel the recovery and beyond will be Next Generation Consumer (NGCs) whose informational points of reference are alltogether dissimilar to old line retail brokerages.

Great News and More Great News!

Great news! The Genie, once our beckoned servant, existing only to accomplishing our economic wishes, rather than rejecting us, invites us to follow into new the new economic space of opportunity…to collaborate, to join the viral horizontal world of the consumer with new approaches to property information management and peer-to-peer community information services.

More great news! Never before has the industry and its adherents been afforded the opportunity to engage in a kind of real estate information alchemy, where our old lead bottle can be turned to a golden horizontal field of freedom for both us and our partner, the consumer.

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Think of how your life and business is different because of this man and his vision. Like him or dislike him, there is no question that his business has transformed life on planet earth. It’s hard to even think of life with his software, a PC on the desk, MS WORD, MS EXCEL, PowerPoint and the rest of what Bill Gates delivered. Enjoy the YouTube video, posted here as a farewell tribute.

Please post a comment with respect to how you believe Bill Gates has influenced the business world in general and the real estate industry in particular.

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Upon his retirement from Microsoft, REALonomics is honoring Bill Gates and his contributions to business and of course, who could question his influence on the real estate industry? Here’s a video from 1992 with some of Bill’s predictions.

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Through video REALonomics salutes Bill Gates for his contribution to business and indeed, who can deny, the real estate industry itself.

Below is Tom Brokaw’s interview with Bill Gates about his exit from Microsoft, his influence and his future in philanthropy.

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