Brokers, Boards, Books and Buildings remain the economic blocks that continue to drive our brokerage profit models. Three of the four are still alive and kicking. What are the Four Bs, how do they function and what, if anything, do they mean to us now? More importantly, how do they meet contemporary consumer expectations?

Broker/Owners are literally the financial backbone of the real estate industry. e-Partner and this blog, REALonomics, support the importance of sustaining the roll Broker/Owners play in perpetuating real estate transactions and indeed propping up the industry at large. It is Broker/Owners who literally guarantee the financial stability of the industry. They are real estate’s preeminent risk-takers.

They are almost always the sole guarantors of market presence and it is they who take most of the personal financial risk for the real estate organizations operating within thousands of communities.

Fact: Broker/Owners are losing their ability to produce and sustain profit for their local brokerage firms. The risks now out weigh the rewards, as many are discovering. TWe are facing the financial collapse of many Broker/Owners.

Broker/Owners have increasing lost their grip on the consumer due largely to (1) the widespread availability of property information to agents and consumers; (2) the industry’s empowerment of the vast numbers of agents with cutting-edge tools that tie them directly to consumers and (3) the irrelevance of their control over local Associations, formerly called “Boards of Realtors” and the centralization of power over consumer access to property by NAR.

Broker’s once maintain an iron grip on local property information through NAR’s establishment of Boards of Realtors owned by Broker/Owners. Broker/Owners still have stated authority over local Associations but their is little or nothing for them to control and their role is primarily administrative and therefore without economic benefit.

WATCH THIS PRESENTATION

Each local Board of Realtors (BOR) (now called “Association of Realtors”) once commanded total control over local property information on behalf of the paying members. It was the Broker/Owners that owned and controlled the local property information data, how it was received, formatted and distributed.

Through the BOR, Owners owned (no pun intended) and controlled ALL property information and ALL access to the information, whether by agents or the consumer. Therefore, they were assured of income and barring reckless squandering of funds they were also assured of a perpetuation of their profit and existence.

Through such property information control, Broker/Owners were able to set individual brokerage listing fees, control agent commissions and literally decide who could play and who could not play.

The union of Brokers and Boards coupled with geographic market definitions and control of property information meant that ALL consumers were required to work through one channel of expertise for any real estate investment, that being Broker/Owners.

Local BORs were compelled to comply with local Broker/Owners who were the ligitimate owners of property information within a specified regional area. All of this engineered and mandated by NAR.

WATCH THIS PRESENTATION

It might surprise many of our readers when we tell you that the primary technology used during the era of Broker and Board control was ink and paper.

The Board of Realtors’ MLS Book was the officially designated and exclusive repository for local property information. It was, in fact, the technology used by Brokers and Boards to distribute property information to consumers through the Broker’s agents.

To distribute new property information for use by agents, who were the monitors and purveyors of current property data to consumers, a new MLS book was printed at regular intervals. At the moment of printing, the data was defective, as some properties were sold and other listed for sale prior to print.

Data updates were facilitated through thousands and thousands of local MLS meetings held each week across the nation. At these ritual gatherings agents arrived, books and marking pens in hand, for the local property information “update” wherein properties were declared “sold” by agents and then robotically lined through in the MLS book.

Price adjustments were written into the margins of the MLS book along with other information verbally supplied by agents.

These meetings were quite the scene. Nonetheless, they represented the manner in which property information was collected, distributed, managed and updated for the ultimate end user, the consumer.

Let’s also remind ourselves of the operative phrase of that generation of Broker/Owners, Caveat Emptor, Latin for “Let the buyer beware.” In those days, the buyer was an unsuspecting consumer who was not at all represented in a real estate transaction but instead was told by us, “we only represent sellers but promise to treat all parties to the transaction fairly and honestly.”

WATCH THIS PRESENTATION

This brings us to the fourth “B” and the central pillar of the real estate business model used by Broker/Owners…Buildings.

The Brokers who owned the Boards published the Books that were placed in the hands of agents who were warehoused in Buildings in just about every market in the U.S.

The Buildings were the primary real estate market expression used by Broker/Owners. Bricks and mortar was the economic junction where consumers were provided with the most important and manditory requirement for acquiring relevant property information. Such information was only provides by agents in buildings owned or leased by brokers with books in hand that were printed by the boards.

In those days the components necessary for a real estate transaction to occur came together in a Broker/Owner’s office; these being buyer, seller, broker and property information. in those days we were the true “gate keepers” of the transaction.

Yard signs, newspaper ads, open houses and updesk calls were the path to consumer contact and ultimately a commission. These ingredients were the spider web designed to capture consumer buying leads in the local market.

Consumers had very little control over the process of buying real estate, a process completely controlled by Broker/Owners and their local marketing machines.

Circa 1970. Something began to happen in the late 60s and early 70s. National real estate franchising came into play and began to redefine a Broker/Owner’s market from local to regional and even national.

Franchising brought with it the first real attempt to provide Broker/Owners with a horizontal component to their business model, increasing their potential for referrals and relocation by means of national branding and networking with member of like kind.

During this same time frame, local Boards began to digitize property data and to generate computerized MLS systems that could deliver property data to a Broker’s office electronically. This would later prove to be the beginning of the end of one of the four Bs, the Book.

About 25 years after the first digitized MLS endeavors began . Computerized MLS, personal computers, modems and ultimately the Internet came into play and provided the empowerment of agents and consumers with ubiquitous real estate information.

In 1994, MLS property information became available on the World Wide Web (WWW), known then as the “Information Super Highway.”

Today, the MLS books are gone. Buyer beware is gone.

What still remains, hanging by an economic thread are the remaining three Bs; Brokers, Buildings and Boards (renamed Associations).

The total control of local property information by local Associations is being challenged and seems to be eroding.

Each of the remaining three Bs is now under scrutiny by an increasingly powerful consumer. It looks like the next “B” to fall is the notion of “Buildings” as an ultimate but now unaffordable retail expression of a Broker/Owner’s real estate market presence.

REALonomics, as a student, analyst, crytic and developer of concepts related to the real estate industry’s business models, can’t help but wonder which of the remain two “Bs” is most in jeopardy:

Will it be Broker/Owner or our local Associations of Realtors (Boards) that will be transformed or eliminated?

Your thoughts?

WATCH THIS PRESENTATION

Related posts:

1. The First Economic Wave
2. The Second Economic Wave
3. Home Price Declines Hit New Records: What Can the Industry Do?

President Obama flew into Arizona to announce his blueprint for a $75,000,000,000 mortgage bailout known as the “Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan.”

REALonomics has digested the preliminary outline of this program which claims to “…offer assistance to as many as to 9 million homeowners…” through a combination of loan modifications and propping up of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, support for state housing authorities and financial incentives for lenders to re-tool existing loans for a predefined set of homeowners whose mortgages fall into specific qualifying categories.

How does it Work and who are the Beneficiaries?

Will the President’s plan make a difference and if so, to whom and when? And, is the plan a sound economic model that will actually help homeowners facing foreclosure, as claimed by the administration? Is this another step in the direction of creating a dependency upon the federal government for and on the part of some Americans and lending institutions?

Let’s take a look at the plan and ask some hard questions.

The plan, set to kick into gear on March 4, 2009, uses carefully calculated qualifying formulas based upon principal mortgage balance ceilings, rigid LTV ratios and market value reductions. The result is yes, some homeowners will be assisted. If you own property in California where 60% of the mortgages exceed $417,000, you will not qualify.

At this point, it looks as if those with higher end home values and jumbo or super jumbo loans are not going to be granted any relief. Only first position mortgages qualify. If you have a second, its only value is to help justify a reduction of the first based upon its contribution to your debt to income ratio.

DOWNLOAD THE EXAMPLE DOCUMENT HERE.

What’s the Financial Carrot for the Lenders?

The plan states that “Treasury will partner with the financial institutions to reduce homeowners’ monthly mortgage payments.” In effect, the taxpayer will be matching the reductions lenders approve on a “dollar-for-dollar” basis to a write down to a 31% debt-to-income ratio for borrowers and lenders will be required to keep the modifications in place for five years.

We will all be funding cash payments to the lenders to pull off the Obama plan. Lenders will receive up-front fees in the amount of $1,000 for each eligible modification. Lenders will also receive bonus payments monthly as long as the borrower stays current on the loan. Are you in favor of such support to lenders?

There’s more! Lenders will be given $1,500 for taking action with those homeowners who are NOT in default or behind in payments and an additional $500 for servicers for modification made while a borrower at risk of imminent default is still current. Is this something you like?

Still more! The government (taxpayers) will also pay up to $1,000 each year against principle balances on loans where the borrower is current on their mortgage payments. This takes place each year the borrower is current for up to 5 years. How does this sound to you?

Are we actually creating a new hybrid sub-prime mortgage product that is simply financed by taxpayers with newly printed money backed by loans from foreign banks?

DOWNLOAD THE PROGRAM FACT SHEET.

Are the Capital Market Supporting Obama’s Plan?

In short, the financial markets have already started to reject the plan with CitiGroup stock dropping to less than $2 and Bank of America plummeting on fears of nationalization of their enterprises and indeed the government control of the financial backbone of the American economy.

Since the federal government started tinkering with banks, throwing our TARP money, setting forth plans to retool mortgages and delivering so-called bailout plans, the stock market has plunged to pre 2002 levels with historic losses, indicating a continued lack of confidence on the part of investors in federal bailout programs.

Another interesting question those of us in the real estate industry should be asking is whether or not this plan will actually stop the reduction of home values, open the credit markets for new sales and stop foreclosures?

What would happen if we just left the market alone? We are already seeing banks stepping up to the plate to solve the problem without taxpayer support.

Do we want our industry’s future to be predicated on total control of the lending and qualifying process, government determination of property values and a segmentation of homeowners into various classes and categories based on home values? Or, do we have more confidence in the free market to work its way through this problem.

REALonomics believes we have only seen the beginning of the creation of a “Nanny State” that may result in more damage to the economy. To top it all off, the CEO of Bank of America has been subpoena in an attempt to force disclosure of bonuses paid to bank executives prior to BofA receiving TARP funds.

Are we thinking long term? Should we back off and let the markets self-correct? Are we willing to take on massive personal obligations for government backed mortgage solutions? How will the “Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan” impact our children and grandchildren?

DOWNLOAD THE 14 QUESTION FAQ DOCUMENT.

Related posts:

1. The Federalization of our Financial System at your Expense
2. Home Price Declines Hit New Records: What Can the Industry Do?
3. Gekko was Wrong…Greed is Bad

The Obama news conference was followed this morning, Saturday, November 8, 2008 by a radio address with similar content. These two initial events give us hints about the Obama economic model that will shape America and of course, the real estate industry for perhaps decades.

Attacking the Economy Means Controlling the Outcome

The Obama team is going to attack the economy in laser-like fashion. New rules are going to be written that will impact the private sector and retool the way in which those transactions dependent upon credit and lending work.

REALonomics has believed for some time (years, actually) that the real estate industry needed to redefine itself through sweeping consumer-centric changes driven mostly by standards based brokerage and maximum transparency.

What we never knew and could never predict are the bleak economic factors that now give rise to the transformation of our business models and have fueled a meltdown of home values in such universal proportions. Principle: Economic problems left unsolved by the private sector typically invite government mandated intrusions in order to harness the favor of the electorate.

Can the RE Industry Still Write its Own Rules

It is beginning to look a lot like the real estate industry will be shaped not by factors we control but by the policies and rules created by others. We, under the mantle of the National Association of Realtors (NAR), have, for the most part, missed most of our opportunity to define and shape the debate and participate in the rules that will create a “New Real Estate Industry.” NAR’s mistaken endorsement of the $700 billion bailout program has hurt us and created a dependency relationship with the federal government. In essence, we have been placed in the unenviable position of a reactive industry rather than a proactive force.

Do we still have the clout and the courage to write our own rules? Do we have the will power, discipline, leadership and the creative inspiration to recognize that we are on the cusp of a “New Real Estate Economy” wherein we can control the rules that dictate how the industry operates within a consumer-centric era? Have we become an industry, like so many before us, that will eventually become reliant upon the solutions created by a bloated federal bureaucracy that is more interested in centralizing power than in actually empowering people?

The Key Principle behind Rule-Writing

It’s not so much the rules per se, that govern business matter as it is the economic and social viewpoints of those who pen the rules. It’s always belief that precedes policy. What we believe about our industry is different that what Washington believes. There are principles behind rule-writing, always!

The key principle behind rule-writing is simply “BE THE RULE WRITER.”

Here are but some of what REALonomics believes will be the “new rules” evolving from the financial policies that will be put in place during what will be increasingly defined by the new Administration as a “crisis.” A history lesson…bureaucracies flourish best when set in motion during “crisis.”

NEW RULE 1: There will be a heavy emphasis on creating a bevy of legislation designed to control each aspect of the mortgage lending process. This sounds good until we understand the difference between our and Washington’s definition of transparency and disclosure. The new set of rules will further slow the markets while everyone waits to see and then create a whole new layer of regulations and regulators operating in the basement of every mortgage lender.

NEW RULE 2: Crack down will be the new operative language for not only Wall Street and so-called “overpaid CEO’s” but also those within the real estate industry who are not fully compliant with Rule #1. REALonomics thinks that real estate brokers will become targets for industry crack down and the eventual police force for compliance with new lending and transaction rules. In his website Barack Obama has already pledge to crack down on brokers and lenders.

NEW RULE 3: NAR will become more and more dependent upon government approval for the implementation of our industry policies and procedures that have sustained us for decades. NAR, already reeling from the DOJ debacle, will have a mandated hotline to Washington and will need to use it to check-in, seek approval and help implement the new rules that will be written. In essence, NAR could become an extension and purveyor of brokerage and home ownership policies written by the Obama administration, Pelosi’s House and Reid’s Senate.

Although the housing industry is suffering and the real estate industry is under siege, REALonomics would like to encourage the industry to step up to the plate and position itself under a new set of operating principles that can be sent to Washington as a demonstration of our commitment to operating and policing our own industry. We are still strong enough to influence the outcomes if we are proactive rather than reactive.

Let’s continue to remind ourselves that the key principle behind rule-writing is simply “BE THE RULE WRITER.”

Get the full transcript of the Barack Obama news conference and read between the lines.

Related posts:

1. Obama, McCain and Real Estate
2. Obama: Bailout, Banks & Bowling
3. The Federalization of our Financial System at your Expense

According to a recent Standard&Poors/Case-Shiller home price index of the top twenty metropolitan area home values, we are seeing record declines. Get a copy of the report.

Here’s the breakdown synopsis (source: Standard&Poors/Case-Shiller) (arrow highlights by REALonomics):

In these and hundreds of other markets, home value declines are taking a toll on individuals and families whose financial security is predicated almost entirely on home ownership.

There are at least three things local real estate companies in partnership with mortgage and title service providers could do for struggling homeowners.

1. Set up financial support workshops led by experienced brokers/agents designed to coach homeowners with respect to their property values, the current trends, their specific mortgage situation and how to take positive steps to stay in their homes unless they absolutely must sell at this time. Such workshops should utilize skilled mortgage service counselors (not loan officers) who can give them answers;
2. Real estate agents in troubled markets should be literally returning to the old practice of knocking on doors, not to get listings but to meet homeowners as “Property Consultants” to discuss specific home values within their neighborhoods and offer advice. In addition, brokerage firms should deliver resource information to homeowners that will advise them about market conditions, refinancing and other information they need;
3. Brokerage firms should turn a portion of their print media budget and Internet costs toward creating blogs that are specifically administered by trained “Property Consultants” who can interact with property owners and deliver solid advice in real time.

During the next 24-36 months brokerage firms who want to build and retain consumer loyalty and predisposition should take a serious look at engaging in the creation of a group of “Property Consultants” who engage homeowners who are facing uncomfortable times.

Such an emphasis sends a powerful signal to consumers that we are serious, skilled, well trained, competent and knowledgeable professionals who can and will assist them with any property question they have, including financial counseling.

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2. Biting the Hand that Wants to Feed Us
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Cast your confidential vote for President at iVoteAmerica.com.

—– syndicated post from iVoteAmerica begins here —–

Join the game that has taken America by surprise!

Previous big winners include Wall Street, the Mortgage industry and foreign investors including China and many others. Register today, login and play!

Everyone is automatically a contestant and the stakes have never been higher. Go ahead, put yourself on the line.

—– syndicated post from iVoteAmerica ends here —–

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There seem to be two camps developing within the real estate industry. The first camp believes the media and negative language is the culprit that is creating a lot of the market decline and lack of buyer confidence. The other camp is the group saying, “We need to look within the industry and raise our standards making them more consumer-centric and us less susceptible to repeating the errors of the past.” REALonomics falls into the later group.

As a result of feedback here is the comment from the Inman article posted here for our readership:

The notion that positive thinking and misplaced hype can move us away from a faulty and failing economic model is more dangerous than the crisis itself because it demonstrates the lack of depth in our thinking. This crisis cannot be repaired by “making people believe the worst is over…” This is the logical result and outcome of poor economic modeling in the mortgage industry that loaned billions to buyers who didn’t qualify and the real estate industry’s fickle pretense that it exercises ultimate fiduciary in its dealings with clients.

Rather than whining, what we should be doing as an industry is recreating ourselves in terms of standards-based brokerage practices, revamping our national and state networks into consumer-centric, transparent operations and utilizing the power of NAR to send a positive signal to consumers that we “get it” and that they are going to see a new side to the professional real estate industry they deserve and one that will refuse to close a transaction where the buyer does not qualify.

A standards-based model should include heavy fines for brokerage firms that (1) hire under qualified agents who lack the academic training and counseling skills we need for consumer protection; (2) refuse to fulfill maximum (not minimum) financial training in economics and real estate investments and fiduciary training courses and finally, (3) much higher costs to enter the industry and stay in it.

A standards-based industry would include national performance reviews and ratings of brokerage firms with financial and recognition incentives for creating and maintain standards of excellence that protect consumers and their investments in real estate.

In addition, we need to look at the role of NAR and how NAR services the industry and consider refocusing its mission and resources on a newly profiled industry that really understands and accepts responsibility for its actions when counseling consumers to invest in real estate.

One thing we believe with certainty, we are never returning to what we once knew. Having said that, what is it we would like to become as an industry after the dust settles?

While the Feds scramble to resolve issues, we should be scrambling as an industry to reinvent ourselves. Such a reinvention involves painful analysis and truth-telling about where we have been and how we have operated. Only then can we begin the process of rebuilding a tattered industry that is increasingly viewed with skepticism by most consumers.

REALonomics.net”

———- END OF COMMENT ———-

Related posts:

1. Home Price Declines Hit New Records: What Can the Industry Do?
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3. REALONOPOLY – Does Anyone Still Wanna Play this Old Game?

REALonomics Editorial

We now own what we cannot control. We are witnessing the Federalizaiton of the Financial Systems of America. Backed by a fickle Congress and flanked by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, President Bush and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, contrary to their former political beliefs that government should stay out of the private sectors of the economy, took measures today to endorse the Federalization of our money systems.

Q1 - What does this mean to the real estate industry?

Clearly we are entering spooky waters wherein we dared never enter before. REALonomics believes the move by the government will paralyze the industry making home buying and selling incredibly difficult, if not impossible, in some already paralyzed markets. Home and commercial property values will assuredly decline even more, reducing the networth of the industry and its investor and home owner base.

Q2 - What does this mean to the mortgage industry?

Expect huge consolidations greater than the Bank of America’s absorbtion of Countrywide and Merrill Lynch. With this consolidation of the financial titans, mega titans will be created and essentially be required to submit to a new set of tightly regulated lending rules. It will be harder and harder to borrow and lend. This will create a over-regulation of the market and further drag on mortgage recovery.

Q3 - What does this mean to Americans?

Each of the more than 300 million people in America, including those born yesterday, will end up with at least a $100,000 debt hanging over their heads. This is the representative figure that is the accumulation of the current escalation of the national deficit and the new estimated $2 trillion dollar bailout of the financial markets.

The government bailout of the private sector of the market means that each of us was just handed a tax bill or, we might call it a “cash call” because we are collectively the new owners of the private problems of borrows and lenders.

Ron Paul (R, TX) was correct when he told Ben Bernanke, in essence, “you are going to bankrupt the American people with your money policies.”

The average American family is essentially, on paper, wiped out by this move and the impact on the real estate and mortgage industries was just extended to perhap a decade or even more.

Q4 - What does this mean in terms of the election?

This is the easy question and the answer is more finger pointing, more investigations, excessive government snooping (there needs to be some), lots of drama on the political stump and a great deal of harm to John McCain, who is already having difficulty coming out from the shadow of Bush’s foreign and domestic policies.

But it also means trouble for Barack Obama. He can forget about his national health care program for all Americans, he can forget about taxing anyone, much less those earning incomes above $250k and he can kiss his “no-new-energy-if-it-means-drilling-coal fired plants-and-nuclear-power” policy good by.

In essence the damage done to both candidacies is substantial and the next 45 days are going to be like the wild-wild-west as we run up to election time. To vote in the Presidential poll, visit www.iVoteAmerica.com.

The most remarkable thing about today’s move to “take-over” is that it represents a profoundly fundamental shift in our capital market value system and establishes a whole new mechanism for creating a way to further tax the American people. Make no mistake about it, you just got taxed and to pay the tax bill you were forced to financed the payments over time. There was paperwork, no disclosure and no recource for any of us. All of this is taking place right before our eyes without much of a whimper or a voice of protest.

Related posts:

1. Paulson Pushes Bush Plan to Revamp the U.S. Financial Regulatory System
2. Biting the Hand that Wants to Feed Us
3. Bush: Federalizing the Economy?

EDITORIAL

A re-post from iVoteAmerica, dated Monday, September 15, 2008.

In the movie Wall Street, Gordon Gekko proclaimed to shareholders, “Greed is good!” Gordon was wrong. Wall Street was wrong. The real estate and mortgage industries were wrong.

Oh, by the way…Alan Greenspan was wrong too when he proclaimed that subprime lending was “innovative” and “beneficial to consumers.”

Sound economics and the art of lending are predicated upon the borrower’s capacity to service the debt, pay it down over time and deliver return to the lender.

The concept of borrowing without capacity is foreign to all western economies and you won’t find it on any campus in America in Economics 101. Neither you nor many of your friends was ever taught the principle “you can have something for nothing.”

No One Whined about the Flow of Money

From about 2000 through 2005 greed was good to Wall Street and to the real estate and to the mortgage industries. No one whined about the money back then.

Even REALonomics, one the real estate industry’s few cutting-edge, truth-telling blogs has acknowledged in a recent post the roll the real estate and mortgage industries have played in the crash of the housing market. Refreshing honesty amidst a sea of excessive finger-pointing and blame gaming.

With today’s huge 500 point decline in the NYSE, the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the timely absorption of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America we have the first bright light in the housing market collapse.

The First True Glimpse of Light

Today’s calamity was a glimmer of light and good news. Today’s plummet was the true market telling us greed is bad.

Yes, this is a bright light! Finally, the healing can begin along with celebration of the release of the last hot air from a pumped-up pseudo market, held together by slick accounting practices.

If not next year then certainly the year after your home value will begin to increase again.

Politically, this means there is less chance the Federal Government will continue its bailout of collapsing institutions that have made greed their mantra.

Tomorrow may see an uptick in the market as the true, blue-blooded economists and investors who understand the balance between eithical lending and moral borrowing begin to buy into a new market that is finally vomiting the economic bacteria from the depths of its belly.

Let the healing begin!

Related posts:

1. Paulson Pushes Bush Plan to Revamp the U.S. Financial Regulatory System
2. Deal or No Deal – Play America’s Game of Chance
3. The Federalization of our Financial System at your Expense

Such was the case for me in September, 2005.

That was the month and year that I first noticed the beginning of the waning of the real estate market. Not that I was too concerned, having sold my company in April of the same year. The market reports and online articles that typically flood my computer screen seemed different than those to which I had become accustomed. I noted the change and went on. “Oh well,” I remember thinking, “just a statistical blip…a temporary abnormality.”

Little did I know that this would be the anniversary of my ignorance.

In the Summer of ‘05

In ‘05, the market was ablaze, sales were happening, loans were funding and people were still entering our industry in unprecedented numbers. The gold rush was on!

Within and throughout the real estate industry there was attitude. We were strutting our stuff like peacocks in a 4th of July parade. Companies had shattered their all time sales records. Being a million dollar agent was akin to being in preschooler. We were producing $10 million, $20 million and even $50 million dollar agents, like water from an open spigot. Agents had become accustomed to $100k, $250k and $500k incomes after a couple of years in the business. Most of them spent every cent of it on guess what? Real estate.

But now, looking back, I’m asking myself, was there too much pride, too much self-confidence? Were we shackled by our lack of clear thinking and proper vision?

Were we engaging in ignorance? Were we flirting with a dangerous kind of collective ignorance?

I wonder if I am to blame for some contribution to the market bust. I wonder if “we” are to blame. I wonder if our industry is to blame for not being pragmatic and disciplined in the advice given our clients regarding their purchase of homes with inordinately inflated prices and mortgage rates too good to be true? Yes, I know hindsight is 20-20 and second-guessing can be dangerous. But the real estate industry and our power over people can be a dangerous thing if we are in any way self-diluted.

I’m beginning to think about how “we” qualify our clients. Forget the mortgage industry for a moment and focus closer to home. I’m thinking about the thousands of John and Mary Does to whom we owed our utmost fiduciary in all matters pertaining to the acquisition of real property. I’m wondering just how well trained our agents really are and how accountable we were in the Summer of ‘05.

In the Summer of ‘08

We now find ourselves exiting the summer of ‘08. We will most likely face a frosty Fall in which we will not be close to anything we can call a recovery. Every day a news story breaks that delivers another hammer-blow to the already weak market. While politicians pontificate, the market continues its retreat.

Those markets that heretofore were boasting “we’re okay over here,” are now feeling the crunch as their inbound buyers are unable to sell property in order to commit to relocation. Underwriting rules are being revamped almost daily. Banks are tightening up and even denying loans to their A+ customers. Some banks are closing their doors. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are in a state of reorganization.

In the summer of ‘08 I’m soul-searching. Are you? I’m wondering if our industry needs to soul-search and create a list of “things gone wrong.” A list of things we will vow to never repeat. As I muse, I’m wondering what our collective ignorance avoidance checklist would look like.

There hasn’t been much, if any, talk about our role and responsibility in the market crash…we can finally call it a crash without being chided and derided for negativity. Yes, we love to point our finger at the favorite scapegoat and counterpart in the millions of transactions from which we benefited, the mortgage industry. But what about me, you, us? What about the professional real estate industry called Realtors®?

After all, weren’t we pretty happy? No, let me correct myself, “delirious” is the word I should use to describe us in the summer of ‘05. Weren’t we delirious when we collected those commission checks, one on top of the other in the summer of ‘05? Weren’t we beating our collective industry chests just a little, figuratively speaking?

The Anniversary of Our Collective Ignorance

September, 2005 will always be the anniversary of my ignorance. Sometimes I’m forced as an industry analyst, consultant and supporter to ask questions and to say things in ways that are designed to get attention and to challenge the real estate industry with questions like this one:

“Was September, 2005 the anniversary of our collective ignorance?”

Related posts:

1. Gekko was Wrong…Greed is Bad
2. Biting the Hand that Wants to Feed Us

Can the 2008 Housing Act Stabilize and Turn the Real Estate Cycle Around?

Who would have only 5 years ago expected that we would be staring down such complex and turbulent times in real estate?

Last week, President George Bush signed The American Housing Rescue and Foreclosure Prevention Act of 2008 (the Housing Act) into law. It is the most sweeping housing legislation since the Great Depression. The new Act authorizes the Department of the Treasury to stem the tide of home foreclosures and provide a lifeline to mortgage lenders. With inventory in many large cities sitting at almost a one year level, and foreclosures expected to surpass 6 million by 2012, they have a huge task ahead.

Related posts:

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