Editorial

Biting the Hand that Wants to Feed Us

flickr image by revdancatt

President Obama flew into Arizona to announce his blueprint for a $75,000,000,000 mortgage bailout known as the “Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan.”

REALonomics has digested the preliminary outline of this program which claims to “…offer assistance to as many as to 9 million homeowners…” through a combination of loan modifications and propping up of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, support for state housing authorities and financial incentives for lenders to re-tool existing loans for a predefined set of homeowners whose mortgages fall into specific qualifying categories.

How does it Work and who are the Beneficiaries?

Will the President’s plan make a difference and if so, to whom and when? And, is the plan a sound economic model that will actually help homeowners facing foreclosure, as claimed by the administration? Is this another step in the direction of creating a dependency upon the federal government for and on the part of some Americans and lending institutions?

Let’s take a look at the plan and ask some hard questions.
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Voting Influences Outcomes

We are on the cusp of perhaps the most significant Presidential election in our lifetime. Since the launch of www.iVoteAmerica.com and its endorsement by REALonomics, we have been discovering that real estate professionals fall into two basic political camps.

The first camp’s position seems to be “I don’t do politics as a real estate professional, it’s personal and I don’t mix it with business…that’s what I pay NAR to do for me.”

The second camp takes a different approach which might be characterized as, “If not now, when…we need to start speaking up and letting our individual and collective voices be heard in order to impact decision-making.”

As we approach the election on Tuesday, November 4, 2008, REALonomics would like to encourage all real estate professional, regardless of which camp they reside in or what their political persuasions might be to vote.

Voting influences outcomes. A proactive real estate industry that votes is but the expression of choice on a single day. Beyond the ballot box we should be using our individual voices to influence opionion and stake our individual and collective places in the political process. Our individual voices form a type of collective concensus in the arena of public opinion and the national soapbox of ideas.

We can engage the voting public by exploring political social media opportunities that are outside industry, such as iVoteAmerica and other political blogs that reach the general public.

Let your voice be heard by voting and by blogging about the great issues of our day that are influencing the country today and into the future.

Government Interference has Harmed American Real Estate Wealth

EDITORIAL

REALonomics urged the real estate industry to reject the $700,000,000,000 government bailout program.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) took the opposite position and even launched a national public relations campaign designed to convince us, the members, to support something that historically we have never supported, government interference in the private sector free market.

Well, here we are, a few days hence, witnessing the most massive loss of personal and real estate wealth in the history of the world.

Now let’s talk about the real estate industry specifically. The central wealth producing asset of most Americans is their investment(s) in real estate. Our industry has been dedicated to the creation of wealth through home ownership supported by one’s ability to qualify for mortgage financing and to service the debt based upon qualifying ratios.

It appears we have adopted a position that runs counter to our industry’s historical roots. But worse than that, through industry support of the bailout we have actually made a fundamental mistake in economic judgment and we may have harmed the ability of brokerage firms and agents to be effective ambassadors and cousellors to consumers.

Are we ready to exchange a long-held traditional and fundamental economic model for a new system where the notion of “bail-out” through subsidized real estate welfare is a valid competing model?

Should NAR have supported the $700 billion bail out? We don’t think so and we said so in our post entitled “Warning: RE Industry will be Harmed if Bailout is Backed by Us” on September 30th, 2008.

REALonomics calls on NAR to reverse its position and return to our historical position where we only believe in the American dream of home ownership where individuals and families, under the guidance of sound advice from Brokers and agents, purchase homes they can afford.

NAR’s support of the bail out was wrong and we should make that admission to the American people so that we can regain the trust of consumers.

Warning: RE Industry will be Harmed if Bailout is Backed by Us

URGENT INDUSTRY MESSAGE

REALonomics continues to take a position that the natural market cycles should dictate the recovery and that government sponsored bail out attempts will create additional long term issues and actually stall a real recovery.

Although many in the industry favor federal intervention we are hard pressed to find anyone setting forth specific rationale for doing so. We hear a lot of emotion but not much sound economic reasoning based upon our industry’s historical commitment to traditional capitalism as the driving force behind real estate home ownership.

Wachovia was snatched up by CitiGroup just days ago. According to the FDIC’s website, there have been 40 bank failures since 2000 and NONE of them…yes, that’s right…none of them was bailed out by taxpayers. At iVoteAmerica.com there are predictions of more bank mergers over the next several business days.

Failing banks will continue to be absorbed just as ALL of them have been absorbed to date. After all, the best investment good banks can make today is to purchase assets of failing banks for pennies on the dollar and delivering huge internal rates of return to themselves. Therefore, patience is called for and we ought not to allow ourselves to be influenced by knee-jerk politicians from either party. Forget the election for a moment! Forget your favorite party preference for a moment!

Yesterday, September 29, 2008, the stock market lost more than $1 trillion in value. REALonomics predicts that investors will surface, shifting their investment strategies to more conservative, traditional positions.

NAR is Wrong on Rescue Package

Furthermore, REALonomics believes that the endorsement of the bailout by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is a dead wrong endorsement and a clear indicator of NAR’s desperation with the housing market and its departure from the traditional approach to real property investment where true equity was a necessity to home ownership.

Our core value has always been home ownership as the primary investment for individuals and families. Behind this core value we have heretofore (prior to subprime lending) advised our clients to utilize conservative strategies when purchasing a home, including establishing and NEVER compromising their equity position. Have we decided as an industry that this is bad advice and adopted a dangerous borrow-to-the-hilt value system?

Some of you will remember the days when we encouraged homeowners to build “true” lasting equity that they could rely on when it came time to retire. The home was a person’s primary savings and investment account. I have a question for the RE industry; “Have we decided to depart from this core value position?”

Danger, Danger and More Danger to Owners

What about real estate company owners, our favorite topic? If the bailout occurs with a massive amount of taxpayer dollars used to rescue the so called “toxic mortgages” most real estate company owners will be effectively out of business within a short time as home values will likely plummet to pre 2001 levels. The toxic loans will be discounted to unprecedented levels, impacting literally every property value in metro markets.

If a rescue occurs, all property values in the United States will immediately decline. In fact, the financial institutions are already cutting HELOCs and credit card amounts in a desperate attempt to ratchet the market downward.

If the rescue occurs as currently outline by the Senate and voted down by the House, the ability for the average American buyer to access available real estate investment capital will diminish the market by perhaps another 50%. Although REALonomics is not attempting to inject hysteria into an already highly charged situation, we believe it is important that Realtors® have a clear understanding of the potential long term risks of a bailout by taxpayers.

Just Plain Old Bad Business and Bad Policy

The rescue of bad loans is simply bad real estate business and bad real estate business is bad for the real estate industry and bad for real estate company owners.

Let the market fix itself. The market will repair itself and the results will be less painful than allowing the bailout to prevail. The fact is…actually, the truth is, we are going to be harmed. The only question is how much pain are we going to allow to be inflicted upon the industry?

If we do not allow the market to heal itself and we adopt a taxpayer bailout mentality we will be adopting a fundamental shift in the historical values espoused by the real estate industry and to a large degree we will have socialized real estate, diminishing the value of all Realtors® and the industry itself. Such a shift in policy will create a huge potential for government oversight of the real estate industry and create transaction liabilities for broker/owners, franchisors and let’s not forget appraisers and mortgage lenders.

We encourage you to think deeply upon these things.

Deal or No Deal – Play America’s Game of Chance

The following PhotoBlog political post is syndicated from iVoteAmerica.com, a companion site to REALonomics, where you can vote in polls and influence others with your comments about contemporary political topics.

Cast your confidential vote for President at iVoteAmerica.com.

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Previous big winners include Wall Street, the Mortgage industry and foreign investors including China and many others. Register today, login and play!

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