Housing #s - Signs of Improvement?
It’s a mixed bag. The new homes sales performance shows small bursts in market pockets that might be interpreted as signs of improvement. However, we cannot definitively state, “we have hit bottom” at least not yet and probably not until late 2009. However, before the bottom comes, look for more mixed signs indicating adjustments to the downward trend such as more mortgage shake out and more upheaval amoung even the stronges brokerage brands.
REALonomics believes real estate markets follow a distinct business cycle, characterized by forced change brought on by new technology advancements that redefine how the industry creates and sustains ROI. We are in what we call a “consumer trough.” The bottom occurs somewhere during this trough and the change will only be seen with the introduction and adoption of new business models that facilitate market accelleration.
REALonomics stands by its analysis that the real estate housing market fluctuates in accordance with “Power Cycles” and the next one will occur sometime in 2011; See the REALonomics Power Cycle analysis.
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